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Title: Gulf States: Spearheading Global Norms and Governance
Description: The document delves into how Gulf states are reshaping the global landscape through ingenious initiatives and strategic partnerships, extending their influence beyond traditional realms like oil to areas such as defense production, fintech, and space collaboration. Showcasing generational leadership transitions, the Gulf states are embracing a proactive and diversified foreign policy strategy to actively shape global governance and technology competition. They are evolving from norm-takers to norm-entrepreneurs, positioning themselves as crucial players in defining 21st-century international norms and order.
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Gulf Research Center
Knowledge for All
Middle Powers in a
Multipolar World: The
Evolving Role of Gulf States
in Global and Regional Order
Layla Ali
October 2025
xX f 2 Lo)
@Gulf_Research Gulfresea...
At the core of this
www.grc.net
transformation lies strategic autonomy,
the ability to pursue independent foreign
policies without severing traditional
alliances. Gulf capitals are diversifying
the...
By
redefining what it means to be a middle
power, the Gulf states are positioning
themselves as indispensable power
brokers, and potential architects of the
21st-century international order. I. Gulf S...
Unlike traditional middle powers that
seek to mediate or balance tensions
among major powers, Gulf states
increasingly shape the trajectory of great
power competition itself. Their
geostrategic locati...
fact:
The Gulf states have transitioned from the margins to a more central position in global politics, becoming norm-setters, influential power brokers, and potential architects of the 21st-century international order. They shape the trajectory of great power competition and engage in high-level diplomacy with key global players.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s engagement
with both the Taliban and Western
governments after 2021, the ongoing
negotiations between Israel and Hamas,
and Saudi Arabia’s careful balancing
between Washington and B...
As traditional
alliances fray and ideological blocs
reassert themselves, states are
increasingly compelled to diversify
partnerships, hedge risks, and assert
greater agency in managing their
external ...
First, generational leadership transitions
in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar
brought to power younger rulers, such as
His Royal Highness Crown Prince and
Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman,
His High...
context:
The generational leadership transitions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have brought younger rulers to power, such as Mohammed bin Salman, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who have shown greater willingness to take calculated external postures.
fact:
Saudi Arabia has approximately 46% youth under 25 years, with a median age of 29.8 years. The UAE has about 34% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 32.8 years. Qatar has around 25% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 33 years. Oman has roughly 50% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 28.8 years. Bahrain has about 35% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 32.7 years. Kuwait has around 40% of the population under 25 years.
fact:
Doubts over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, particularly after the 2003 Iraq invasion and the disengagement under both Obama and Trump, have led Gulf capitals to diversify alliances and pursue multi-vector diplomacy.
This approach has been
explicitly articulated by Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, who
in 2022 emphasized, “We do not believe
in polarization or selecting between one
partner and anothe...
fact:
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan emphasized in 2022 the Kingdom's policy of not believing in polarization or selecting between partners, but rather setting policies based on its own interests.
What has changed is not just the external
environment, but the Gulf states’ own
strategic posture. A confluence of
regional instability, the perceived
retrenchment of the U.S. from the
Middle East, a...
context:
The document discusses the evolving role of Gulf states in the global and regional order, highlighting their strategic autonomy, agenda-setting capabilities, and their influence in shaping great power competition. It explores the generational leadership transitions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, showcasing how younger rulers are influencing external postures and new approaches to governance and diplomacy. A confluence of regional instability, the perceived retrenchment of the U.S. from the Middle East, and the multipolar diffusion of global power created openings, but it was Gulf leadership that actively moved to fill them. Gulf states have taken initiatives to shape the regional order themselves: mediating in existing conflicts, recalibrating ties with great powers, and investing in multilateral diplomacy. This marks a shift from a reactive posture to a proactive and diversified foreign policy strategy, giving rise to a new phase of Gulf diplomacy that is more autonomous, assertive, and multidimensional.
Saudi Arabia’s growing influence in
Islamic multilateralism, through the
Organization of Islamic Cooperation
(OIC), and its push for tourism,
entertainment, and cultural diplomacy
signal an ambition t...
While the GCC
states maintains security assurances
from the U.S., it also deepens its
economic integration with China. Saudi
Arabia and the UAE, for example, have Gulf Research Center
signed strategi...
This “all-partners-no-
enemies” strategy has allowed the Gulf
states to avoid entanglement in
ideological blocs while maximizing
returns from a fragmented world order. To bolster their strategic auton...
Gulf Research Center
clean hydrogen, smart grids, and solar
R&D, as part of broader efforts to build
diversified and future-oriented
economies. Since the escalation of the U.S.—China
trade war in 2...
Saudi
Arabia’s role in Sudanese ceasefire
negotiations, talks between Russia and
Ukraine, and brokering prisoner
exchanges has earned it recognition as a
diplomatic problem-solver. The logic
behind t...
These tools, economic leverage,
mediation diplomacy, security
partnerships, cultural engagement, and
technological investment, allow the
GCC countries to project influence well
beyond their geographic...
By
leveraging their oil output as both a
geopolitical tool and a fiscal resource,
Gulf states have inserted themselves into
key global economic and_ strategic
discussions. While deeply rooted in the h...
These
investments are often shaped by
geopolitical considerations, advancing
technology transfer, forging strategic
partnerships, and elevating the Gulf’s
www.grc.net
global presence. For instance, ...
Gulf Research Center
global networks of state-backed airlines
like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and the
new Riyadh Air, which effectively
utilize their central geographic position
to connect continents a...
fact:
Saudi Arabia has approximately 46% youth under 25 years, with a median age of 29.8 years. The UAE has about 34% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 32.8 years. Qatar has around 25% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 33 years. Oman has roughly 50% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 28.8 years. Bahrain has about 35% of the population under 25 years, with a median age of 32.7 years. Kuwait has around 40% of the population under 25 years.
fact:
Confidence in the Gulf states grew from having weathered repeated crises, including oil price collapses, the Gulf War, the Arab Spring, and the 2017 GCC rift, demonstrating their resilience and capacity to adapt.
fact:
Doubts over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, particularly after the 2003 Iraq invasion and the disengagement under both Obama and Trump, have led Gulf capitals to diversify alliances and pursue multi-vector diplomacy.
fact:
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan emphasized in 2022 the Kingdom's policy of not believing in polarization or selecting between partners, but rather setting policies based on its own interests.
fact:
Gulf states have transformed vulnerabilities into platforms for influence, positioning themselves as indispensable interlocutors in a fragmented global order short on trust, flexibility, and mediation capacity.
fact:
The shifting geography of energy demand towards Asia has given new weight to the long-standing resource wealth of Gulf states.
fact:
Gulf states' sovereign wealth funds, with hundreds of billions in assets, have become key instruments of global economic influence, shaping infrastructure development, technology ecosystems, and capital flows across regions.
Source: The New York Times (2022)
Qatar’s ownership of Paris Saint-
Germain (PSG) and its hosting of the
2022 FIFA World Cup exemplify how
sports and cultural investments can
position a state as a cu...
These efforts
strengthen supply chain resilience,
reduce transaction costs, and enhance
Oman’s position as a hub linking Asia,
the Middle East, and Africa. Over time,
such initiatives could evolve int...
Oman’s Vision 2040 has
prioritized fisheries, mining, and the
large-scale production of green
hydrogen as central to its economic
transformation, while Kuwait’s Vision
2035 has sought to modernize
inf...
India
has become a key strategic partner, not
only in energy but also in defense
production, fintech, and — space
collaboration. Turkey, once a regional
rival, is now a recipient of growing Gulf
inves...
fact:
Gulf investments are used not only for returns but also to forge political relationships, secure technological know-how, build economic interdependence with emerging and established powers, and engage in strategic partnerships in defense production, fintech, and space collaboration.
context:
The transformation of the global economy provided additional avenues for Gulf states to enhance their strategic relevance and engage in strategic partnerships beyond energy, such as defense production, fintech, and space collaboration.
context:
Gulf states' influence, initially founded on hydrocarbon wealth, has diversified beyond oil revenues to include diverse strategic partnerships in areas like defense production, fintech, space collaboration, and beyond.
context:
The document explores the instruments of Gulf statecraft, including economic leverage, mediation diplomacy, security partnerships, cultural engagement, and technological investment, that project influence beyond geographic boundaries. It focuses on how these tools allow Gulf countries to enhance their global presence by shaping global technology competition, forging strategic partnerships, advancing technology transfer, and engaging in defense production, fintech, and space collaboration.
fact:
The Gulf states have transitioned from the margins to a more central position in global politics, becoming norm-setters, influential power brokers, and potential architects of the 21st-century international order by engaging in defense production, fintech, and space collaboration.
fact:
Gulf investments are used not only for returns but also to forge political relationships, secure technological know-how, build economic interdependence with emerging and established powers, and engage in strategic partnerships in defense production, fintech, and space collaboration.
to
cooperate on infrastructure, food
security, and tech innovation, while
simultaneously engaging with the
BRICS and SCO platforms, highlights
the strategic ambition to influence both
Western and non-...
Increasingly, Gulf capitals are not only
participating in global discussions but
also designing and hosting platforms that
set the terms of debate on emerging
issues. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Space
Debate ...
Oman has also used
platforms such as the Oman—East Africa
Business Conference (ITEX 2025) and
the Indian Ocean Conference to promote
logistics cooperation, investment, and
connectivity between the Gul...
Traditionally dominated by great powers
and institutions like the UN or the
Bretton Woods system, middle and
emerging powers often played the role of
norm-takers. In today’s multipolar and
contested o...
The summit highlighted
initiatives such as the UAE-led $30
billion Alterra climate investment fund
and global partnerships for green
hydrogen and carbon capture utilization
and storage (CCUS), reinfor...
context:
Traditionally dominated by great powers and institutions like the UN or the Bretton Woods system, middle and emerging powers often played the role of norm-takers. In today’s multipolar and contested order, this dynamic is shifting. As traditional institutions face paralysis and declining legitimacy, new actors are stepping in to define what is considered legitimate or desirable across areas such as security, trade, technology, climate, and humanitarian action. Norm-setting thus extends beyond diplomacy to shaping the architecture of global governance itself. For the Gulf states, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. With growing economic clout, diplomatic reach, and convening power, they are moving from norm-followers to norm-entrepreneurs, promoting governance models and partnerships that reflect their own interests and priorities. Norm-setting is also manifest in the climate and technology domains, where Gulf states are positioning themselves not just as contributors to global governance but as architects of new frameworks. The UAE’s hosting of COP28 in 2023 demonstrated a strategic effort to reshape the climate agenda from a Gulf perspective, one that emphasizes carbon mitigation through decarbonization technologies, scaling up climate finance, and promoting a pragmatic, transition-based approach to energy transformation rather than abrupt fossil fuel divestment. The summit highlighted initiatives such as the UAE-led $30 billion Alterra climate investment fund and global partnerships for green hydrogen and carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), reinforcing the country's ambition to lead in shaping post-carbon energy governance.
Institutionally, Gulf states are building
parallel governance platforms designed
to consolidate their normative
leadership. Saudi Arabia’s Future
Investment Initiative (FII) and Financial
global disc...
Source: SPA (2024)
These positions align with the Gulf’s
broader advocacy for refining the UN
Security Council’s working methods to
make it a more effective guardian of
international peace and __ sec...
context:
The Gulf states' roles in the global capitalist system have evolved from reactive to proactive, leveraging financial tools for political relationships, economic interdependence, and geopolitical considerations.
context:
The document discusses the evolving role of Gulf states in the global and regional order, highlighting their strategic autonomy, agenda-setting capabilities, and their influence in shaping great power competition. It explores the generational leadership transitions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, showcasing how younger rulers are influencing external postures and new approaches to governance and diplomacy. A confluence of regional instability, the perceived retrenchment of the U.S. from the Middle East, and the multipolar diffusion of global power created openings, but it was Gulf leadership that actively moved to fill them. Gulf states have taken initiatives to shape the regional order themselves: mediating in existing conflicts, recalibrating ties with great powers, and investing in multilateral diplomacy. This marks a shift from a reactive posture to a proactive and diversified foreign policy strategy, giving rise to a new phase of Gulf diplomacy that is more autonomous, assertive, and multidimensional. The transformation of the global economy provided additional avenues for Gulf states to enhance their strategic relevance.
context:
The Gulf states are advocating for refining the UN Security Council's working methods to enhance its effectiveness in maintaining international peace and security. They are engaging in G20 debates, participating in forums like BRICS, and taking lead in summits like the Arab-China and Arab-African meetings to position themselves as positive contributors to the next phase of global governance.
fact:
The outcome of Gulf states' efforts in shaping regional and global norms remains uncertain, with possibilities ranging from consolidating into a balanced multipolar order to evolving into a Gulf-centric architecture that primarily serves elite interests. The long-term intentions of the Gulf states will be tested by how their platforms evolve and whether they embrace inclusive governance, transparency, and multilateral legitimacy, or continue to prioritize control, stability, and sovereign autonomy over democratic participation and shared rule-making.
The
outcome may depend on how Gulf-led
platforms evolve and if they internalize
www.grc.net
inclusive governance, transparency, and
multilateral legitimacy, or continue to
prioritize control, — stab...
The Gulf states operate in one of the
world’s most volatile — strategic
environments, where — geopolitical
rivalries, energy transitions, and regional
instability converge. Their security is
challenge...
Bahrain has strengthened its capabilities
by leveraging the Arab Shipbuilding &
Repair Yard (ASRY) to design and build
vessels for the Bahrain Coast Guard,
enabling indigenous construction and
mainten...
Gulf states
continue to rely heavily on Western,
particularly U.S., security guarantees,
and the intention is not to sever these ties
but to recalibrate them. The ultimate
goal is to reduce dependency...
The UAE’s
National AI Strategy 2031 includes
initiatives in autonomous’ mobility,
healthcare, and smart governance,
supported by the appointment of the
world’s first Minister of State for
Artificial...
This includes strengthening
www.grc.net
C7
STEM education from primary school
through to advanced research
institutions, incentivizing private-sector
innovation, and ensuring that AI
adoption is gu...
fact:
Gulf states aim to position themselves as shapers of the global AI agenda by strengthening STEM education from primary school to advanced research institutions, incentivizing private-sector innovation, and guiding AI adoption with governance frameworks sensitive to the Gulf's cultural and societal context. They seek to balance global technological partnerships with the development of indigenous capabilities, transitioning from mere adopters to active shapers of the global AI agenda.
In
an era where digital governance is
becoming as strategically important as
physical infrastructure, this initiative not
only enhances economic competitive-
ness but also positions the Gulf as a
stan...
context:
The document discusses how Gulf states are reimagining multilateralism by spearheading their own global institutions, leveraging their convening power, financial resources, growing diplomatic credibility, and Gulf's standard-setting role in areas traditionally dominated by global tech powers. These institutions are meant to complement, not supplant, established frameworks like the United Nations, providing targeted mechanisms to respond faster and more flexibly to specific needs. An example is the UAE-backed Arab Digital Economy Initiative, aiming to shape the governance of emerging digital domains by promoting unified digital policy, investing in cross-border infrastructure, and enabling interoperability between Arab states' digital systems.
Oman’s 2024 signing of a Coordination
and Cooperation Protocol with the EU’s
Operation ATALANTA further
underscores the potential for Gulf-led
security cooperation. By _ linking
Muscat’s Maritime Se...
context:
Oman has also used platforms such as the Oman—East Africa Business Conference (ITEX 2025), the Indian Ocean Conference, and the 2024 signing of a Coordination and Cooperation Protocol with the EU’s Operation ATALANTA to promote logistics cooperation, investment, and connectivity between the Gulf, African economies, and European security frameworks. These efforts strengthen supply chain resilience, reduce transaction costs, and enhance Oman’s position as a hub linking Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. By linking Muscat’s Maritime Security Centre with EU anti-piracy operations in the Western Indian Ocean, Oman's agreement with the EU underscores the potential for Gulf-led security cooperation, deepening interoperability between Gulf and European security frameworks. Such efforts illustrate how Gulf states can act as both regional security providers and connectors between disparate multilateral efforts. Gulf-sponsored platforms could become enduring fixtures in the global governance architecture, turning the Gulf’s growing agenda-setting capabilities into durable, institutionalized influence.
By _ diversifying
energy sources, these projects insulate
Gulf economies from hydrocarbon
volatility and position them as suppliers
of low-carbon energy in a decarbonising
world, while building credib...
A Gulf able to
weather energy transitions, climate
impacts, and geopolitical turbulence can
engage in diplomacy from a position of
strength, exercising influence not only
through energy exports and se...
fact:
The Gulf states' model of norm-setting prioritizes state-led modernization, regime stability, developmentalism, and cultural rebranding. They leverage sovereign wealth, convening power, and institutional innovation to influence the international rule-making process, especially in areas where traditional powers have stalled or lost legitimacy. This model is gaining traction in parts of the Global South, reflecting a growing interest in post-Western, non-prescriptive development pathways. A Gulf able to weather energy transitions, climate impacts, and geopolitical turbulence can engage in diplomacy from a position of strength, exercising influence not only through energy exports and security partnerships but also through stability provision, climate leadership, and sustainable growth models.
Overextension, domestic reform
pressures, technological dependency,
and persistent regional instability could
undermine the Gulf’s capacity to sustain
influence. Their growing visibility in
global gov...
context:
Overextension, domestic reform pressures, technological dependency, and persistent regional instability could undermine the Gulf’s capacity to sustain influence. Their growing visibility in global governance also exposes them to sharper scrutiny, raising questions about accountability, inclusivity, and the balance between regime stability and broader legitimacy. The Gulf’s ability to reconcile its ambitions with these shape financial and technological vulnerabilities will determine whether its role consolidates into a durable model of leadership or fragments under competing pressures. Yet the direction of travel is clear. By blending hard and soft power, Gulf states are positioning themselves not merely to adapt to multipolarity, but to help shape it. They are no longer just participants in the global order; they are beginning to define its rules, priorities, and institutions. In this sense, the Gulf is emerging as both a laboratory and a driver of new forms of middle power diplomacy, pragmatic, flexible, and increasingly systemic in its influence. Looking ahead, the Gulf’s trajectory offers a broader lesson for the international community: In an era of contested norms and fractured alliances, strategic agility can be as valuable as material power. Whether through convening Global South coalitions, setting standards in digital and climate governance, or redefining regional security frameworks, Gulf capitals are demonstrating that small and medium-sized states can exercise disproportionate influence when they leverage geography, wealth, and diplomacy with vision and precision.
Whether through
convening Global South coalitions,
setting standards in digital and climate
governance, or redefining regional
security frameworks, Gulf capitals are
demonstrating that small and mediu...
https://www.stimson.org/2025/uae-transitions-
from-arms-importer-to-competitor-with-the-
west/
Foreign Ministry of the Sultanate of Oman. “New York: Oman Affirms Support for
Regional and Internationa...
https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-
articles/latest-news/details/1445/05/08/qatar-
affirms-security-council-reform-is-important-
challenge-and-strategic-goal-for-international-
group?utm_source=chatg...
“Saudi Arabia
Surges to 14th Position in Global AI Index, Ist
in Arab World.” Saudi Press Agency (English),
accessed October 5, 2025. https://spa.gov.sa/en/N217423 1
Saudi Press Agency (SPA). 2025. “...
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Email: info@grc....
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Jeddah 21451
Saudi Arabia
Tel: +966 12 6511999
Fax: +966 12 6531375
Email: info@grc.net
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