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Russias_Shifting_Strategy_in_Syria_Implications_for_Turkish_Foreign_Policy.pdf
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Title: Echoes of Power: Russia's Military Intervention in Syria and its Impact on Global Dynamics
Description: Delve into the complexities of Russia's strategic shift in Syria, exploring the reasons behind its military intervention and the ripple effects on Turkish foreign policy. From showcasing modernized military capabilities to asserting global power status, Russia's actions in Syria reverberate across international relations, influencing conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, and beyond. Witness the interplay of military maneuvers, political dynamics, and power struggles that define the Syrian crisis and shape the geopolitical landscape.
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ay Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies
CASE ANALYSIS
Russia’s Shifting Strategy in Syria: Implications
for Turkish Foreign Policy
Hasan Selim Ozertem ...
826, Zone 66
Doha, Qatar
Tel.: +974 44199777 | Fax: +974 44831651
www.dohainstitute.org
* Director of the Center for Energy Security Studies at the Ankara-based think-tank USAK. Table of Contents
...
This begins by arguing that the risk of military confrontation in the air
between Turkey and Russia necessitates the creation of new channels between the states
in order to avoid the risk of diplomati...
ARAB CENTER FOR RESEARCH AND POLICY STUDIES
of the power shifts at these three levels, this paper will outline the factors that lead Russia
to its current intervention, and then go on to explore the ...
Each of these issues shifted rapidly with Russia’s September 2015 decision to become
directly and militarily involved in the Syrian crisis. Before officially engaging, however,
Russia forged ahead wit...
Following his speech at the UN where Putin negotiated concerns at the international level,
Russian supersonic jets commenced airstrikes in Syria, thus complicating the situation in
the country, both ...
These suggestions made sense for Russia because Moscow believes the
maintenance of the Assad regime’s sovereignty some parts of Syrian territory is preferable
to extremist or terrorist control over th...
fact:
Russian supersonic jets commenced airstrikes in Syria after Putin's speech at the UN. These airstrikes have focused on creating a safe zone for Assad forces and aiding them in regaining control over territories lost to opposition groups.
fact:
Moscow's belief in maintaining the Assad regime's sovereignty over parts of Syrian territory to avoid extremist or terrorist control influenced Russia's strategy in Syria.
fact:
Russian military equipment and arms were transferred from Russian ports to Syria following Moscow's conclusion in August and September.
The New International Set-up After the P5+1 Agreement with Iran
The conclusion of an agreement between the P5+1 and Iran on the nuclear issue was a
critical development in the summer of 2015. After t...
context:
The text discusses the shifting international dynamics following the conclusion of the P5+1 agreement with Iran in 2015.
context:
Russian Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Alexey Boradavkin, highlighted the interconnected nature of political issues on a global scale, mentioning the potential influence of reaching settlements in Ukraine and Syria.
fact:
The conclusion of the P5+1 agreement with Iran in 2015 resulted in increased visibility of conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, impacting global and regional power balances.
fact:
Russian intervention in Syria and willingness to assist the Iraqi government against ISIL serve the dual purpose of asserting global power status and positioning Moscow as a key player in conflict resolutions.
fact:
The collaboration between Moscow and Tehran in supporting the Assad regime strengthens their dialogue and showcases Moscow as a dependable ally during crises.
Russia’s Desire to Put its Military to the Test in Syria
The collapse of the Soviet Union coincided with its military defeat in Afghanistan. In the
years to follow, Russian Military faced serious cha...
context:
The text discusses Russia's shifting strategy in Syria, focusing on the factors that lead Russia to its current intervention and its implications for Turkish foreign policy, including the background of Russia’s intervention in Syria as well as the rapid shifts following Russia’s September 2015 decision to become directly and militarily involved in the Syrian crisis. The document is a case analysis by Hasan Selim Ozertem from December 2015, including the reasons behind Russia's intervention, such as the early deployment of military equipment and the discourse employed by Russian authorities. The text also covers Russia's desire to put its military to the test in Syria as a means to showcase its modernized military capabilities following significant investments in defense expenditures since 2008.
context:
The text discusses Russia's desire to put its military to the test in Syria as a means to showcase its modernized military capabilities following significant investments in defense expenditures since 2008.
fact:
Since 2008, Russia has undergone an extensive phase of military modernization, with defense expenditures increasing from 3.3% of GDP in 2008 to 4.5% in 2014.
fact:
Russia views its involvement in Syria as an opportunity to test and showcase its military technologies to the international community, given the absence of real air defense systems among opposition groups in Syria.
Observing this change, Russia is also aiming to develop its co-operational
counterinsurgency and counterterrorism capacities. As Russian Defense Minister Sergey
Shoigu observed, the military exercises...
fact:
Russia's involvement in Syria also aims to develop its cooperative counterinsurgency and counterterrorism capacities, amidst changing military doctrines of conventional armies and evolving Western military strategies. The recent military exercises in September 2015 focused on tactics of terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and real-time attacks started in Syria at the end of September, with a focus on coordinating airstrikes with Syrian and potentially Iranian ground troops. The combat strategy is aimed at showcasing Russia's readiness and military capabilities, serving as an advertisement for its technologies and equipment on the global defense market.
fact:
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu observed that military exercises in September 2015 focused on tactics of terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
fact:
Russia began real-time attacks in Syria at the end of September, coinciding with the military exercises.
fact:
Recent combat strategy of Russia in Syria involves coordinating airstrikes with Syrian and potentially Iranian ground troops.
fact:
Russia aims to send a message of readiness and learning from past experiences through its military engagement in Syria.
fact:
Russia sees its involvement in Syria as an opportunity to showcase its military technologies and equipment globally.
Such channels
would also stem any decline of bilateral cooperation in the economic sphere between the
two countries as well. Secondly, Russian intervention has created a new reality on the
ground, an...
To avoid further escalation with Russia, Ankara summoned Russian Ambassador Andrei
Karlov to Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ask for an explanation of his country’s
repeated violations of Turk...
fact:
Ankara summoned Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov to Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to address Russia's repeated violations of Turkish airspace.
fact:
Turkey's president and prime minister emphasized the risk these developments pose to the future of good relations between both countries, particularly in the energy sector.
Indeed, following this ordeal, on October 15, 2015, a delegation from Russia led by Major
General Sergey Dronov arrived in Ankara to clarify the recent violations on the Syrian
border. Proposing high-...
fact:
Following tensions, a Russian delegation led by Major General Sergey Dronov arrived in Ankara on October 15, 2015, to clarify recent violations on the Syrian border. Proposing high-level coordination between Moscow and Ankara, Dronov cited bad weather and navigation mistakes as reasons for the violations.
However, after his visit to
Moscow to attend the opening ceremony of the Moscow Cathedral Mosque on 23
September 2015, President Erdogan signaled the possibility of a transition process in Syria
that...
context:
The new text elaborates on the impact of Russian intervention in Syria on Turkey's policies, stance towards Syria, border security measures, and relations with Russia.
fact:
Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of relations with Turkey, highlighting the countries' history as major trade and economic partners despite recent tensions.
fact:
After President Erdogan's visit to Moscow in September 2015, he signaled a potential shift in Turkish foreign policy towards Syria, including the possibility of a transition process involving Assad.
fact:
Turkey is concerned about the territorial integrity of Syria, particularly with the potential formation of a Kurdish entity in northern Syria.
fact:
Turkey has been engaging in dialogue with Kurdish groups in the region over the past six years, alongside discussions with various other factions on the ground.
The path that the transition process follows will thus largely determine the tendencies of
Turkish foreign policy in the months to come, despite parallel efforts to open channels of
dialogue with the ...
Still, Russia is taking a big risk by inserting itself into the mix of the ongoing war in Syria. This is an open test for the Russian Military. Any mistake on the ground, or in the air, will
10 RUSSI...
context:
The text discusses Russia's shifting strategy in Syria, including the risks and implications of Russia's military engagement in the ongoing war.
context:
The new information highlights the impact of Russian intervention in Syria on Turkey's foreign policy and stance towards Syria, including the risks and implications for both countries.
Russia’s direct support of the Baath regime has undermined Turkey's position on a safe
zone or no-fly zone, and it seems that a transition process in which Assad maintains
power is now being discussed...
fact:
The Russian intervention in Syria has complicated the situation in Syrian airspace, making the establishment of a safe or no-fly zone less likely for Turkey. Russia's direct support of the Baath regime has undermined Turkey's position on a safe zone or no-fly zone.
fact:
Reports in the Turkish media suggested that Turkey may participate in negotiations allowing Assad to remain in power. It seems that a transition process in which Assad maintains power is now being discussed out loud in Turkish politics and among the country’s public.
fact:
The outcome of the transition process in Syria and Russia's intervention will significantly influence Turkish foreign policy in the upcoming months. In the upcoming period, the Syria’s future will continue to be a subject of debate, but the nature of the transition will be definitive for Turkish foreign policy.
Thus, it will be political initiatives that
determine the trajectory of Syria’s future. 11
context:
The discussion emphasizes the role of political initiatives in shaping the future trajectory of Syria.