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2025-06-FP-Mineral-deal-1.pdf
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Title: Forging Strategic Alliances: US-Ukraine Agreement on Peace, Reconstruction, and Investment
Description: This document outlines the comprehensive agreement between the US and Ukraine, focusing on peace, reconstruction, and investment initiatives. Beyond tax exemption provisions and mineral trade clauses, the agreement aims to bolster Ukraine's sovereignty amidst challenging circumstances. By emphasizing long-term strategic gains over short-term profits, the deal not only secures US support for Ukraine but also influences global geopolitics and trade dynamics, hinting at potential shifts in global dependency on critical raw materials.
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CEPS EXPLAINER
MUCH MORE THAN MINERALS:
THE US-UKRAINE MINERALS
AGREEMENT ANDITS
GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
Tinatin Akhvlediani
2025-06 SUMMARY
After months of tense negotiations, the US and Ukraine...
Tinatin Akhvlediani is a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy unit at CEPS. = CEPS Explainers offer shorter, more bite-sized analyses of a wide range of key policy questions
S| facing Europe. Unless ...
As illustrated by the Agreement’s name, at its heart is the creation of a United States—
Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. This would likely be a limited partnership
between the US Internationa...
These include minerals as well as energy commodities (such as
oil, gas and liquefied natural gas) and leaves room for other minerals or hydrocarbons, if
the parties agree. The Agreement foresees a tax...
The Agreement foresees the free and unrestricted conversion of the Ukrainian currency,
the hryvnia, into US dollars and the transfer of funds to the Partnership’s bank accounts,
whether inside or outs...
The Agreement also provides flexibility over future amendments,
but only if both sides agree in writing. 3 | MUCH MORE THAN MINERALS: THE US-UKRAINE MINERALS AGREEMENT AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATION...
That’s why expectations for short-term profits from the Agreement, which even Trump
has alluded to, are misplaced. The initiative will only be successful if there is sustained
political and territoria...
It
explicitly supports Ukraine’s long-term peace, sovereignty, resilience, reconstruction and
modernisation. In doing so, the Agreement effectively aligns Ukraine’s recovery, sovereignty and stability...
Still, as the US seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical raw
materials, this Agreement positions Ukraine as a potential alternative. While China
doesn’t control most of the ...
The Annex further clarifies that if Ukraine later takes on additional obligations as part of
its EU accession that may affect the Agreement, both parties will consult and negotiate in
good faith to ma...
6 | TINATIN AKHVLEDIANI
SENDING A STRONG MESSAGE TO RUSSIA
This Agreement comes against Vladimir Putin’s offer to invest in Russia’s mineral sector. Its text explicitly and repeatedly refers to Russ...
Thus, the Agreement is not only an economic commitment, but also a geopolitical rebuke
of Russia’s aims and provides reassurance of the US’ continued support for Ukraine’s
independence, sovereignty an...
While immediate profits are
unlikely due to the time and monetary resources needed for extraction to start, the
Agreement lays the groundwork for long-term gains — for both the US and for Ukraine. For...
As developing
extraction and processing capacity in Ukraine will require significant financial investments
and time, the Agreement can bring profits only in the long-term. And ultimately, the Agreemen...
And ultimately, the Agreement’s success depends on one fundamental condition: a lasting
peace and full Ukrainian control over its territory. CEPS
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