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Israeli-Saudi-Normalization-Visctim-7-october-Alvarez-Ossorio_IEMedYearbook2024.pdf
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Title: Shifting Sands of Alliance: The Impact of Israeli Military Campaigns on Middle Eastern Diplomacy
Description: This document delves into the complex interplay between Israeli military actions, the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, and the Palestinian issue. It explores how recent attacks have sparked shifts in public opinion, challenged established diplomatic agreements, and influenced the strategies of key regional players like Saudi Arabia.
Status:
finished
Pages: 6
Uploaded:
2026-03-02 09:51
Last Processed: 2026-03-02 10:41
Chunks (14)
Dossier
128 Israel-Palestine Conflict
IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2024
Dossier: Israel-Palestine Conflict
Israeli-Saudi Normalization:
A Collateral Victim of 7 October’
Ignacio Alvarez-Ossorio...
context:
The chunk discusses the impact of the attacks of 7 October 2023 on the balance of power in the Middle East, particularly affecting the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world.
recognition of Palestinian national rights, which im-
plied abandoning the Arab Peace Initiative adopted
at the Beirut Summit in 2002. However, the military campaign against the Gaza
Strip, which in i...
fact:
The Oslo Process failed, leading to the relegation of the Palestinian issue by the Western community, the Arab world, and some Arab countries due to the military campaign against the Gaza Strip.
fact:
Recent Israeli administrations have prioritized 'peace for security' over 'land for peace' in relation to the Palestinian issue. The military campaign against the Gaza Strip has led to some Arab countries recalibrating their process of rapprochement with Israel.
fact:
The article was written in July 2024 by Ignacio Alvarez-Ossorio Alvariiio, a Professor of Arabic and Islamic Studies at Complutense University of Madrid.
This document stresses that the attack should be
seen first and foremost as a reaction to “Israeli Ju-
daization plans to the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque,” “the
practices of the extremist and right-wing Is...
context:
The chunk delves into the motivations behind the attack on 7 October, emphasizing reactions to Israeli Judaization plans, annexation policies, detainment of Palestinians, and other injustices. It also touches on the implications of the attack within the context of the Middle East's political dynamics.
Jared Kushner, Trump's adviser on the Arab-Israeli
dossier, put forward a plan to replace the principle of
“land for peace” with that of “peace to prosperity” in
the pretentiously named Deal of the Ce...
At the signing,
President Trump said the agreement marked “the
dawn of a new Middle East” and would “serve as the
foundation for a comprehensive peace across the
entire region” The agreements were pre...
fact:
The Abraham Accords signed in 2020 accelerated the normalization process between Israel and the Arab world.
fact:
Arab countries agreed to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel without requiring its prior withdrawal from occupied territories or recognition of Palestinian national rights, but some Arab countries have now shifted their stance due to the military campaign against the Gaza Strip.
fact:
At the signing, President Trump said the agreement marked “the dawn of a new Middle East” and would “serve as the foundation for a comprehensive peace across the entire region”. The agreements were presented as a historic opportunity for peace in the Middle East, although their aim was rather to establish a broad front to contain Iran's growing regional influence.
In the case of Saudi Arabia,
5% of respondents were in favour, 38% were against
and 57% did not answer. Nearly half of the respond-
ents said that the main reason for opposing normali-
zation was Isra...
fact:
In Saudi Arabia, 5% of respondents were in favor of normalization with Israel, 38% were against, and 57% did not answer. Nearly half of the respondents opposed normalization due to Israel's colonization policies and desire to annex Palestinian territories. The Israeli military campaign against the Gaza Strip has shown that the normalization agreements have not fostered peace, but rather the opposite.
fact:
In Saudi Arabia, 5% of respondents were in favor of normalization with Israel, 38% were against, and 57% did not answer. Nearly half of the respondents opposed normalization due to Israel's colonization policies and desire to annex Palestinian territories.
fact:
The normalization agreements facilitated greater security coordination around repression; for example, the UAE expanded engagement with Israeli companies specializing in repressive technologies and invested in the Israeli defense industry.
context:
The chunk discusses the impact of the Israeli military campaign against the Gaza Strip on the perception of the normalization agreements, highlighting how they have not fostered peace and have instead contributed to escalating the conflict.
The
traditional Saudi position is reflected in the 1981
Fahd Plan, which supports Israeli withdrawal from
the territories occupied during the 1967 war and the
establishment of a Palestinian state on t...
fact:
The benefits for Israel would be unquestionable, as 'peace with the Arab world [would] render the Palestinian issue marginal at the regional and international levels and a mere Israeli domestic matter' (ACRPS, 2023), which would enable it to intensify its fait-accompli policies and accelerate the process of annexing the occupied territories. The 7 October attacks led to an overhaul of Mohammed bin Salman's entire policy, as they questioned his strategy to marginalize the Palestinian issue and normalize relations with Israel as a means of strengthening the Saudi alliance with the United States and curbing Iranian expansionism. After the launch of the military offensive against the Gaza Strip, Saudi officials were forced to adopt a much more critical stance towards Israel and its systematic violations of international humanitarian law.
After the launch of the military
offensive against the Gaza Strip, Saudi officials were
forced to adopt a much more critical stance towards
Israel and its systematic violations of international hu-
ma...
This change in Saudi attitude can be attributed not
only to the need to counteract the Iranian regime's
prominence, but also to the widespread rejection of
Saudi public opinion towards the establishme...
In the specific case of Saudi Arabia, 95%
shared this opinion (up from 69% the previous year). Even 70% considered the Hamas attack as a legitimate
resistance operation against the Israeli occupation....
fact:
Different polls show that there is a clear divorce between rulers and ruled when it comes to the establishment of full relations with Israel. According to the Arab Opinion Index 2022, 84% of respondents in 14 Arab countries between June and December 2022 expressed opposition to their governments’ normalizing relations with Israel, with only 8% in favor. In the specific case of Saudi Arabia, 95% shared this opinion (up from 69% the previous year). Even 70% considered the Hamas attack as a legitimate resistance operation against the Israeli occupation. What most respondents also agreed with — 94% — was a negative assessment of the role played by both the US and the main European actors: France (79%), the United Kingdom (78%), and Germany (75%). Eighty-one per cent felt that the US was not credible in its support for the establishment of a Palestinian state and 77% even considered it the greatest threat to security and stability in the Middle East. Although the authoritarian nature of Arab regimes prevents public opinion trends from finding a significant echo in the political arena, they cannot be completely ignored either.
fact:
Saudi Arabia remains a central player in the Arab system, with Mohammed bin Salman's priorities focused on consolidating power, ensuring a peaceful transition to the head of state, and enhancing Saudi Arabia's influence on a regional and global scale through Vision 2030. The change in Saudi attitude can be attributed not only to the need to counteract the Iranian regime's prominence, but also to the widespread rejection of Saudi public opinion towards the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. According to a poll conducted by The Washington Institute between 14 November and 6 December 2023, 96% of Saudis believed that 'Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza'. Moreover, 91% of respondents agreed with the statement that 'despite the destruction and loss of life, this war in Gaza is a win for the Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims'. After the 7 October attack, Hamas’s image in the Kingdom improved significantly, with 40% having a positive image of the movement compared to 10% in an August survey. Some 87% of Saudis even agreed with the suggestion that 'recent events show that Israel is SO weak and internally divided that it can be defeated someday' (Cleveland and Pollock, 2028). The change in Saudi attitude can be attributed not only to the need to counteract the Iranian regime’s prominence, but also to the widespread rejection of Saudi public opinion towards the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. 95% in Saudi Arabia shared this opinion. Even 70% considered the Hamas attack as a legitimate resistance operation against the Israeli occupation.
According to sources familiar with these ne-
gotiations, this plan would also “tie rapprochement
between Israel and Saudi Arabia to substantial [and
irreversible] steps toward Palestinian statehood,”
...
context:
The chunk discusses the continued negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, potentially tying rapprochement to steps toward Palestinian statehood.
fact:
Saudi Arabia plans to leverage the weak position of the US administration to extract concessions on defense, security issues, and guarantees regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state.
rael at the current juncture, due to the internal and
regional costs it would have to assume, since it can-
not ignore the opinion of its subjects. With regard to the validity of the Abraham Accords,
...
CLEVELAND, Catherine and POLLOCK, David, “New Poll
Sheds Light on Saudi Views of Israel-Hamas
War.” Fikra Forum, The Washington Institute,
21 December 2023: www.washingtoninstitute. org/policy-analysi...
WALLES, Jake, “Prospects for Israeli-Saudi Normali-
zation.” Carnegie Middle East Center, 2 July
2023: https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/90103. Dossier
133 Israel-Palestine Conflict
IEMed. Mediterranea...