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us-russia-interactions-syria.pdf
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Title: Navigating Power Dynamics in Syria: US Policies, Russian Strategies, and Future Scenarios
Description: Delve into the complex interplay between US policies and Russian strategies in Syria, uncovering the impact on economic recovery, political stability, and regional relationships. Explore how US interventionism, sanctions, and support for Kurdish independence collide with Russian efforts to preserve the Syrian state while navigating towards potential cooperation for reconstruction. Unravel the potential scenarios of US-Russia confrontation or cooperation, the Kurdish struggle for autonomy, and the implications of federalisation for Syria's future.
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finished
Pages: 8
Uploaded:
2026-03-02 11:54
Last Processed: 2026-03-02 11:54
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Geneva Centre for
Security Policy
tia GCSP
Syria Transition Challenges Project
Discussion Paper (32)
US-Russia interactions in Syria and the future of the conflict in 2021
Nikolay Surkov, IMEMO T...
context:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 53 member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue.
The future for Syria in 2021 looks bleak from the Russian perspective. Though the conflict entered
a low-intensity phase of armed confrontations that characterised 2020 will likely continue in 2021. T...
The upcoming
elections also increase reluctance for any constitutional change by the government before the
elections. Many Russian observers doubt that the Syrian government is ready to make any
conce...
From the Russian
perspective Iran’s support for Shia groups, even in Sunni territories, is expected to continue and
even increase, a move which will certainly enhance the division and religious strife...
The US policies triggered economic crises in both Syria and Lebanon. Further, sanctions hinder
finding alternative sources of funding needed to rebuild the country. Neither the Gulf states nor
Russian...
Sergey Chvarkov: Rossiya za pyat' let vosstanovila boyegotovnost' armii Sirii [Sergei Chvarkov: Russia has
restored combat readiness of the Syrian army in five years], https://ria .ru/20200930/siriya-...
This negative perception is enhanced by the apparent contradiction
between the stated US policy and practical steps on the ground. According to Russia, the US has
declared its respect for the sovereig...
This opposition suggests a high probability of a US-Russia
confrontation in north-eastern Syria in 2021 unless both parties engage in an improved dialogue
on both military and governmental levels. 3 ...
Russian endgame for Syria
In the long term, the Kremlin is not focused on the specific characteristics of a future political
system in Syria. Instead, Russia is focused on preserving the state and it...
fact:
US policies triggered economic crises in both Syria and Lebanon. Further, sanctions hinder finding alternative sources of funding needed to rebuild the country. Neither the Gulf states nor Russian companies can openly invest in Syria. A lack of investments will drastically slow down the reconstruction, making the return of refugees and even limited political reforms impossible. The Trump administration’s policies also had significant impact in the north. The US allowed Ankara to occupy the northern regions of Syria and establish Turkey-dependent administrations there, thus creating conditions for their annexation in the future. In 2021, Ankara is expected to continue its support of armed Islamist groups in Idlib, Afrin, and ‘security belt’ areas. Turkey’s continued assistance and presence is likely to lead to the struggle for autonomy and future annexation by Turkey of northern Syria, as it happened in the 20th century with Hatay province. These moves are likely to also excite the Kurds’ struggle for their own autonomy. Russian policy makers do not expect the new Biden administration to pursue a significantly improved and more pragmatic policy in Syria. On the contrary, the US position is expected to become more interventionist and ideologically driven, with a continued and potentially expanded military presence in Syria. The new administration is also expected to provide massive support to the Kurds, which will strengthen the Kurds’ appetite for independence which could lead to open conflict in Turkey and a stand-off with the Syrian government in Damascus. Further, the White House could also renew demands for Bashar al-Assad’s resignation and intensify criticism of human rights violations in Syria. Regardless of whether they officially push for Assad’s resignation, the Americans will continue their political and economic pressure on the Assad government. This pressure will further the troubling increase of Iranian influence and will put severe limitations on the reconstruction. US-Russia confrontation or cooperation in Syria? Russian authorities believe and regularly make public statements that the United States is playing a destabilising role in Syria. This negative perception is enhanced by the apparent contradiction between the stated US policy and practical steps on the ground. This opposition suggests a high probability of a US-Russia confrontation in north-eastern Syria in 2021 unless both parties engage in an improved dialogue on both military and governmental levels. On the other hand, focusing on an economic recovery in Syria might provide a more meaningful opportunity for US-Russia cooperation in Syria in the near to midterm future (2021-2022). The Russian authorities believe that the absence of economic recovery will lead to chronic instability in Syria, a reality which the US also recognises. While the Kremlin does not expect US to provide any direct reconstruction funds, it would like the United States not to prevent the foreign investments into Syria, including investments from US allies in the Gulf. However, the US sanctions and demands for immediate regime behaviour change make such a scenario highly unlikely. Despite the negative attitude towards the US military presence in Syria, the Kremlin acknowledges that cooperation with the US in Syria is desirable at least because the Americans proved their ability to play a spoiler role. In particular, Russian officials believe that cooperation will be needed to end the Syrian war, ensure reconstruction, reduce Moscow’s military engagement and economic burden, and maintain Russia’s prestige in the Arab world and Europe. Given this, there is a basis for dialogue between the US and Russia and perhaps an opportunity to develop more compatible visions of a future Syria. Russian endgame for Syria. In the long term, the Kremlin is not focused on the specific characteristics of a future political system in Syria. Instead, Russia is focused on preserving the state and its institutions. However, keeping Bashar al-Assad in power is not a sine qua non for the Kremlin, rather, it acknowledges that Assad is currently essential for the survival of the political system.
state that has close friendly relations with Russia and takes into account its interests, including the
maintenance of Russian military bases. Russian officials avoid openly talking about
‘federalisat...
context:
Recent Russian policies in Syria and their implications
Hypothetically, in the long-term some form of federalisation
might become a useful tool that will help to normalise the relations between Damascus and the
Turkish-controlled areas, thus restoring, al...
fact:
In the long term, some form of federalisation might become a useful tool that will help to normalise the relations between Damascus and the Turkish-controlled areas, thus restoring, albeit formally, the territorial integrity of Syria.
Syria and to prevent it from once again becoming a heaven for the jihadists, and if they were able
to identify pathways for cooperation, the future may improve for all involved.