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Title: Shifting Alliances and Power Dynamics in the Middle East
Description: Explore the intricate web of relationships and strategic decisions shaping the Middle East, from the historic Abraham Accords to the complex interplay between Israel, Gulf states, and regional powers. Delve into the diverging interests of key figures like Mohammed Bin Zayed and Mohammed Bin Salman, the delicate balance between security concerns, economic cooperation, and political dynamics, and the evolving geopolitical landscape defined by regional tensions and global influences.
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Arab Reform Initiative
Bawader / Commentary, 6 November 2020
The Gulf States and Israel after
the Abraham Accords
> Fatiha Dazi-Héni
U.S. President Donald Trump (2nd R), Israeli Prime Minister Ben...
They also give Israel
unprecedented direct access to the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf. Anumber of questions arise. What exactly happened in the region between the
establishment of trade miss...
The GCC has been lastingly divided since 5 June 2017, when
the crisis that now pits four of its member states against each other was
triggered.*
lran’s growing influence is viewed as the most pressin...
fact:
Israel had direct relations with some Gulf Cooperation Council member states for over two decades, with the recent normalization with UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia in 2020.
fact:
The GCC has been lastingly divided since 5 June 2017, when the crisis that now pits four of its member states against each other was triggered.
fact:
Iran’s growing influence is viewed as the most pressing threat by Israel and a number of GCC members, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
fact:
The concerns of the Abu Dhabi/Riyadh duopoly have been exacerbated by factors such as the US disengagement from the region, tensions with Iran and Turkey, and the imminent American presidential elections.
fact:
The UAE's decision to normalize relations with Israel was inspired by worries about the region's uncertainties linked to the US presidential elections, tensions with Iran and Turkey, and other factors.
@ Arab Reform Initiative
The Emirati decision to normalise relations with Israel was based on mature
reflection by its strongman, Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ). It was driven by his
desire to initiate sec...
context:
The Abraham Accords and the normalization of relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the roles of Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) and Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).
context:
The roles of Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) and Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) in the normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
fact:
The Emirati decision to normalize relations with Israel was driven by Mohammed Bin Zayed's desire for security cooperation with Israel, particularly in cyber matters, and to engage in diplomacy of influence with the White House.
fact:
Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador to Washington, played a significant role in establishing influence with the White House, including close ties with Israel and President Trump's inner circle.
fact:
During the Qatar crisis, the UAE and Saudi Arabia co-financed American public relations and communications firms with ties to Israel and President Trump's inner circle.
fact:
Emirati ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba's access to Jared Kushner helped persuade US President Trump to follow the Emirati narrative, such as adding the Muslim Brotherhood to the US list of terrorist organizations in April 2017.
fact:
King Salman of Saudi Arabia adheres to the peace principle in exchange for territories occupied by Israel in 1967, while Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) shows more favorability towards economic and technological cooperation with Israel.
fact:
Under Mohammed Bin Salman's leadership, Saudi Arabia not only approved the Abraham Accords but also pushed Bahrain to normalize relations with Israel under US pressure, risking being overshadowed by the UAE's leadership.
@ Arab Reform Initiative
relations with Israel was imposed on Bahrain following the Emirati announcement
on 13 August 2020 and under joint pressure from MBS and Trump. President
Trump was ina hurry t...
fact:
Bahrain retracted its peace declaration signed in Washington and co-signed with Israel, on 18 October 2020, a communication announcing the establishment of peaceful diplomatic relations (but not full peace) with Israel, contrasting with Washington's declaration of 15 September 2020.
It has a dynamic and plural
parliament and associations, but is limited by the lack of political parties, which
are prohibited. The Palestinian question has been a key issue in the emirate ever
since ...
context:
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, including the involvement of various Gulf states regarding the Palestinian question, political parties prohibition, and diplomatic relationships with Israel.
Doha nevertheless has a useful part to play for
Israel by mediating between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, while also
maintaining a regular political dialogue with Tel Aviv. The Sultanate of Oma...
context:
The role of Doha in mediating between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and its political dialogue with Tel Aviv.
context:
The Sultanate of Oman's potential for normalization with Israel, especially considering the visit by the Israeli prime minister to Muscat in October 2018.
fact:
Oman, facing health and economic crises, has limited room to maneuver and is pressured by Abu Dhabi, its main trading partner in the region.
fact:
Oman serves as a mediator between Iran and the US, but this role is currently inoperative.
fact:
If Joe Biden is elected US president, Oman might regain prominence in the region, potentially impacting Abu Dhabi's position.
fact:
The Abraham Accords have granted Israel significant access to the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf.
fact:
The UAE and Israel are in talks about investing in joint tourism and infrastructure projects, including locations along the Red Sea coast, such as Haifa and Eilat, as well as in Socotra.
@ Arab Reform Initiative
Washington views this new geopolitical axis of Israel and the Gulf states as an
efficient means of neutralising lran’s influence in the region and also counts on it
to put th...
fact:
Washington views the new geopolitical axis of Israel and the Gulf states as an efficient means of neutralizing Iran's influence in the region and count on it to impede China's progression there. The Arab-Israeli normalization process is supported by both the Republican and Democrat parties. If Biden wins the US presidential election, the honeymoon period with Israel under Trump's mandate may end. The Abraham Accords are already causing problems and could pose long-term risk factors for the Gulf states that normalized their relations with Israel, especially considering the public outcry in KSA, Kuwait, and Yemen, as well as in Sudan.
It was created on 25 May 1981
at its constitutive summit in Abu Dhabi. For acritical analysis of the Accords, see:
https://www.du.edu/korbel/middleeast/media/documents/occasional_paper_10.pdf
For det...
http://arabcenterdc.org/policy analysis/saudi-arabia-prefers-implicit-normalization-with-israel/
https://www.axios.com/Israel-bahrain-interim-normalization-deal-manama-
a00d9866-af71-49ea82b6-939sbf3...
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