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Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf
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Title: Bridges of Discontent: The Abraham Accords and Shifting Alliances
Description: Explore the complex landscape of the Abraham Accords, a series of diplomatic agreements aiming to normalize relations between Israel and various Arab countries. From the initial optimism and promise of regional integration to the subsequent challenges, fractures, and geopolitical implications, this document delves into the controversies, conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding the accords and their impact on Middle Eastern dynamics.
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BACKGROUNDER
The Abraham Accords
INTRODUCTION
The Abraham Accords are a series of bilateral
agreements brokered by the United States
whose core original intent has bee...
context:
The text discusses the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements brokered by the United States to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab countries.
fact:
The Abraham Accords represented the first formal normalization of Arab-Israeli diplomatic relations since Israel's 1994 peace treaty with Jordan and the 1979 Egypt-Israel agreement.
fact:
The name "Abraham Accords" was chosen to emphasize the shared Abrahamic roots of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity.
The Abraham Accords built on efforts by previous US
administrations to promote closer ties between Israel
and other Arab states, which had been developing
under the radar since the signing of the Oslo...
A deal based on
this proposal was finalized during a three-way
conference call between President Donald Trump,
Prime Minister Netanyahu, and then-Crown Prince
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Within hours...
fact:
Israel and Morocco established official diplomatic ties in December 2020, following an agreement in which Morocco also received US recognition of its disputed claims over Western Sahara. The Israeli-Moroccan ties have since developed, including the initiation of direct flights between the two countries in July 2021 and the signing of a cybersecurity cooperation agreement.
Sudan signed an
Abraham Accords Declaration on January 6, 2021,
during a visit by the US secretary of the treasury, accompanied by an additional promise of assistance
with obtaining loans from the Wor...
fact:
Sudan signed an Abraham Accords Declaration on January 6, 2021, during a visit by the US secretary of the treasury, accompanied by an additional promise of assistance with obtaining loans from the World Bank. The move was widely unpopular in Sudan, and the bilateral agreement with Israel was never signed. Following the overthrow of the Sudanese government in October 2021 and the country’s descent into civil war in April 2023, Sudan drew closer to Iran and progress on relations with Israel came to a halt.
As part of the visit, Astana
and Washington signed 29 deals reportedly worth
$17 billion. No details initially emerged of how
Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords
may change the nature or int...
fact:
The Abraham Accords built on efforts by previous US administrations, including Barack Obama's presidency, to enhance ties between Israel and other Arab states.
fact:
Diplomatic convener: United States; The resulting agreements did not significantly address the Palestinian issue, the resolution of which had been considered a prerequisite to formal relations with Israel. This prompted criticism that the accords undermined the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which sought to advance a two-state solution.
fact:
During Barack Obama's presidency, Washington established high-level communication channels between Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab Gulf states.
fact:
In 2015, the US hosted Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders at Camp David to enhance missile-defense and maritime security cooperation, aligning them with Israel against shared threats like Iran.
fact:
In 2016, the US signed a $38 billion security memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Israel, making normalization with regional neighbors less daunting for Israel.
fact:
During his initial foreign trip, President Trump emphasized the need to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for broader Israeli-Arab normalization and the creation of an anti-Iran coalition.
fact:
President Trump tasked top White House advisors with conducting back-channel negotiations that led to the UAE-Israel Abraham Accords deal in August 2020, followed by Bahrain's participation and a White House signing ceremony.
fact:
The US supported the Emirati-Israeli agreement by facilitating a $23 billion F-35 and drone sale to the UAE, sidelining the Palestinian issue in the process.
To help
push through the Emirati-Israeli agreement, the US
advanced a $23 billion F-35 and drone sale to the
UAE. Trump’s approach effectively sidelined the
Palestinian issue. The Biden administratio...
fact:
To help push through the Emirati-Israeli agreement, the US advanced a $23 billion F-35 and drone sale to the UAE.
fact:
Trump’s approach effectively sidelined the Palestinian issue.
context:
The text now includes developments related to the Biden administration's actions in building on the Abraham Accords and the involvement of multiple countries in diplomatic efforts.
fact:
The Biden administration built on the Abraham Accords with the inaugural Negev Forum conference, hosted by Israel in March 2022, which saw the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE, and the US travel to Israel.
In January 2022, a bipartisan
group of US representatives founded the House
Abraham Accords Caucus to strengthen the
existing agreements and lay the groundwork
for further normalization deals. The ca...
By fostering multilateral
economic ties, through avenues like trade,
mutual investment, and people-to-people
exchange, the Abraham Accords offered a
regional counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road
I...
fact:
The Abraham Accords offered a regional counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, reinforcing American influence and offering partners an alternative to Beijing-driven infrastructure and investment strategies.
fact:
The UAE and Bahrain exchanged diplomatic representatives with Israel following the signing of the Abraham Accords, leading to new bilateral business partnerships and increased investment and economic opportunities in the region.
fact:
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between Israel and the UAE in 2023, the largest deal between Israel and any Arab country, aimed to boost bilateral trade to more than $10 billion over five years.
In the years following their signing, the Abraham
Accords provided a foundation for broader regional
integration efforts and the establishment of new
transcontinental trade corridors. One mechanism
fo...
fact:
In the years following their signing, the Abraham Accords provided a foundation for broader regional integration efforts and the establishment of new transcontinental trade corridors. One mechanism for furthering such ties was the Negev Forum, which brought together Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE, the US, and Israel for a series of meetings on regional security and economic cooperation. At the group's initial meeting, held in Israel in March 2022, the participants agreed to form six working groups on clean energy, education and coexistence, food and water security, health, regional security, and tourism. Yet subsequent tensions over the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and later the war in Gaza, interrupted additional progress under this format. In July 2022, Israel, India, the UAE, and the US created the 12U2 Group focusing on joint investments and new initiatives in water, food, transportation, energy, space, and health, and in September 2023, the Biden administration pushed for the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). However, the Gaza war likewise put most of those plans on hold. Tourism also flourished following the signing of the accords, at least for a time and mostly in one direction: Israel and the UAE lifted visa requirements for each other’s citizens, and by 2023, more than 1 million Israelis had visited the UAE, supported by 106 weekly direct flights. By contrast, only about 1,600 Emiratis had traveled to Israel since normalization, and officials noted that this figure dropped even further after October 7, 2023. Bahrain opened its airspace to facilitate traffic between the two countries, though actual tourism exchanges were minimal, with only a few hundred Bahrainis visiting Israel in the early years of normalization.
Bahrain
opened its airspace to facilitate traffic between the
two countries, though actual tourism exchanges
were minimal, with only a few hundred Bahrainis
visiting Israel in the early years of norma...
CURRENT STATUS AND PROSPECTS
FOR FURTHER ENLARGEMENT
Unlike previous diplomatic agreements such as
the 1978 Camp David Accords, the 2020 Abraham
Accords centered primarily on the normalization
of dip...
context:
The new text discusses the current status and future prospects of the Abraham Accords, including opposition, criticism, and the impact of conflicts on regional relationships.
Bahrain’s parliament suspended relations with
Israel in November 2023 and recalled the Bahraini
ambassador, but this move was largely symbolic
as the executive branch retains control over the
country...
fact:
Bahrain's parliament suspended relations with Israel in November 2023 and recalled the Bahraini ambassador, but this move was largely symbolic as the executive branch retains control over the country's foreign relations.
fact:
In Morocco, air links with Israel were suspended and tourism dropped.
context:
The new text discusses the current status and future prospects of the Abraham Accords, including opposition, criticism, and the impact of conflicts on regional relationships.
fact:
The prospects for further enlargement of the accords seem unclear, particularly among Israel's Arab neighbors.
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Trump explicitly referenced the Abraham Accords in his speech to the Israeli Knesset on October 13, pledging to add new countries soon and 'have that whole thing filled out' — a sentiment he reiterated in a Fox Business News interview later that week.
fact:
Much recent speculation focused on Lebanon and Syria, thanks to the election of a government in Beirut dedicated to disarming Hizballah and the toppling of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus — though neither capital is ready to take that step as long as Israel continues to carry out military operations on their soil.
As a candidate, Trump mused that
Iran could be incorporated into the Abraham Accords,
though that remains highly unlikely. The Trump
administration has also floated ideas about further
expanding the a...
fact:
The signatories of the Abraham Accords were criticized for abandoning the establishment of a Palestinian state as a condition for normalization, drawing condemnation from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
fact:
Attention has also continued to focus on Saudi Arabia; however, Riyadh has repeatedly made clear that it refuses to normalize ties without concrete steps toward the realization of a Palestinian state. The prospects for further enlargement of the accords seem unclear, particularly among Israel's Arab neighbors.
fact:
As a candidate, Trump mused that Iran could be incorporated into the Abraham Accords, though that remains highly unlikely. The Trump administration has also floated ideas about further expanding the accords to South and Southeast Asia; and it contends that other Muslim-majority former Soviet republics of the Caspian region, which already have normalized relations with Israel, will follow Kazakhstan in signing on.
Katulis or
any of our scholars, please email media@
mei.edu or call 202-785-1141 ext. 241.