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Hopmann-en.pdf
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Title: Shadows of Influence: Unraveling Intrigue in Global Politics
Description: Delve into the complexities of contemporary global politics as the document explores the interplay between key personalities like Trump, John Bolton, and Putin, alongside the high-stakes drama of the Mueller investigation, Russian interference, and the tenuous dynamics within organizations like the OSCE. Discover the undercurrents of power, manipulation, and the quest for dominance that shape the interactions between nations.
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In: IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2018, Baden-Baden 2019, pp. 39-51. P. Terrence Hopmann
Trump, Putin, and the OSCE
Introduction
Since the time of the negotiation of the Helsinki Final Act between 1973...
This limited co-
operation continued throughout the decade of the 1990’s, but it began to fade
after the turn of the millennium in the aftermath of the Kosovo conflict and
other issues that arose betw...
39 In: IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2018, Baden-Baden 2019, pp. 39-51. the OSCE appear largely irrelevant. This contribution reflects the author’s
personal analysis of how the unusual and often bizarre r...
I conclude, then, with a brief assessment of the impact of these two
leaders on their countries’ policies (or lack thereof) towards the OSCE and
their likely consequences for the future role of the OS...
The United States will not tell you how to live or
work or worship. We only ask that you honor our sovereignty in return. [...]
America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of glo-
balism...
He made this point most clearly in a political rally in Houston, Texas, during
the 2018 mid-term elections campaign:
You know what I am? I’m a nationalist, O.K.? [...] I’m a nationalist. It’s
a word ...
A
globalist is a person who wants the globe to do well, frankly, not caring
about our country so much. And you know what? We can’t have that? These and other similar remarks have also led to a politic...
Al In: IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2018, Baden-Baden 2019, pp. 39-51. ignorant?” Indeed, the historical baggage cited by the president’s critics often
refers to two ways in which terms such as “national...
This general attitude has carried over into many of Trump’s early foreign
policy decisions. After two years in office he has, among other decisions, can-
celled the negotiations on the Trans-Pacific P...
He was dismissed by Trump in April 2018, in part
4 Cited in: ibid. 42 In: IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2018, Baden-Baden 2019, pp. 39-51. because he had concluded publicly that there was incontrovertibl...
There is an international community
that occasionally can be led by the only real power left in the world, and that’s
the United States, when it suits our interests and when we can get others to go
al...
As a result of the huge personnel gaps at the level im-
mediately below the Secretary of State, policy-making largely fell to a coterie
of advisors brought in from the conservative American Heritage F...
43 In: IFSH (ed.), OSCE Yearbook 2018, Baden-Baden 2019, pp. 39-51. the State Department and the Foreign Service. [...] We are ringing the village
bell of alarm because Mr. Trump’s neglect of the Stat...
fact:
John Bolton was replaced by Trump in April 2018 by his CIA Director, Michael Pompeo, who has pursued a more hardline foreign policy and has often seemingly been at odds with President Trump.
fact:
John Bolton is known for expressing strong views about the United Nations and the role of the United States in leading the international community.
fact:
John Bolton served as Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs under President George H.W. Bush.
Two years after his election, in November 2018 he saw
the Republican Party lose 40 seats in the House of Representatives, giving the
Democratic opposition a majority in that chamber while the Republic...
8 Jackson Diehl, Mike Pompeo swaggers his way to failure, The Washington Post, 9 Decem-
ber 2018, at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike-pompeo-
swaggers-his-way-to-failure/2...
college has largely become an anachronism, but it remains the law of the land
as the US Constitution is very difficult to amend. Although there is no chal-
lenge to the fact of Trump’s election on tec...
Other figures in his campaign had close
connections with Russia, including members of his family who allegedly met
with Russian operatives to try to find “dirt” on Hillary Clinton. The Mueller
team ha...
context:
Further details on connections between figures in Trump's campaign and Russia, including alleged meetings with Russian operatives to obtain information on Hillary Clinton. Indictments and charges against Russian intelligence agents and Trump associates related to interference in the 2016 US election and potential illegal activities.
fact:
Mueller's investigation has indicted twelve Russian alleged intelligence agents for interfering in the 2016 US election. Many close associates of Trump have also been indicted for offenses like money laundering and unlawful solicitation of Russian assistance in Trump's 2016 presidential campaign.
fact:
If the Mueller investigation reveals evidence of illegal activities making Trump susceptible to blackmail by Russian intelligence, it could lead to charges of 'high crimes and misdemeanors,' grounds for impeachment as per the US Constitution.
All of the investigations surrounding the
Trump administration, therefore, carry significant implications regardless of
their eventual outcome. Even though Trump governs with a swagger that might
seem...
In Congress, ironically, his position forced many
leading Democratic senators and representatives, who normally would have
favoured improved relations with Russia on issues such as arms control and
co...
He demonstrates a “black and white” view of foreign relations, in
which other states are either “friends” or “enemies.” He is incapable of dis-
tinguishing between common interests shared by the US an...
context:
The dynamic between Trump and Putin, focusing on Trump's admiration for Putin and the concerns about potential manipulation by Putin.
In Moscow, the
name appears in its contemporary Russian version as Vladimir, allowing Putin
to claim that history has come full circle after the debacle of communism and
of Boris Yeltsin’s post-Soviet...
Ata session of Valdai Club in Sochi in 2018, Putin
suggested that Trump’s re-election in 2020 would free him to normalize re-
lations with Russia and end US sanctions and other hostile behaviours, whi...
Timothy Snyder, The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America, New York 2018,
pp. 63-66. 11 Dmitri Trenin, Why Putin Isn’t Sweating the Midterms, Politico Magazine, 6 November
2018, at: https://www.p...
context:
Discussion on the focus of Russia on recovery of economic and military strength, establishment of influence in 'near abroad', and undermining confidence in democratic institutions.
fact:
In the past three decades, Russia has primarily focused on recovering its economic and military strength, as well as establishing influence in the 'near abroad' acquired after the Soviet period.
Throughout most of the post-Cold War period, the United States has
maintained a low profile in the OSCE while contributing resources and some
of its best diplomatic personnel, especially to the OSCE f...
However, in contrast to ambassadors who
are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, his primary point
of reference is to the mid-level bureaus in the State Department. Unlike polit-
ic...
context:
Discussion on the United States diplomat's role in the OSCE, his limited exposure to the organization's history and traditions, and his access to decision-making levels in Washington.
Similarly, although Russia has not prevented the OSCE Special Monitor-
ing Mission to Ukraine from operating in the country, it has shown little sup-
port for the role of the OSCE, including the effor...
context:
Discussion on the role of the OSCE in Ukraine, Russia's lack of support for OSCE efforts, and its preference for unilateral action in security matters.
They have been replaced by a transactional set of relationships that seek
agreements based on narrowly defined national interests. They see diplomacy
as an activity between powerful heads of state, on...
context:
The OSCE is facing challenges as it has to operate without the active support and cooperation of the US and Russia, who are now viewed as disruptors rather than supporters of a cooperative security order.
fact:
The OSCE is likely to focus on maintaining 'business as usual' and operating 'below the radar screen' of opponents of multilateralism and globalism in Washington, Moscow, and some European states.
As in its early years, the OSCE is likely
to have to depend on many smaller states, many of them formally neutral, that
have long supported the CSCE/OSCE, such as Switzerland, Finland, Austria,
reinfo...
In the final analysis, the institution is very much worth preserving, and we can
only hope that the OSCE region rediscovers the norms and values that inspired
the Helsinki process before it is too lat...